Friday, April 21, 2006

The Last Mistake? - MPG

- If air strikes are made against targets in Iran it will truly be a sad day for the democratic movement. Not only will the regime have an excuse to go after any and all dissent, but the people of Iran will be less likely to welcome a change in regime. We, who live in the West, have a special privilege. Not only are we in a position to effect change within Iran without comming into the purview of the regime's hand, but we can also influence the policies of the respective countries in which we reside. The Iranian diaspora needs to make it clear that any military aggression against Iran will not be appropriate. Furthermore, alternatives to the regime need to be presented as truly viable alternatives.

I hope that we can change this regime before there is any bloodshed.
Despite all the warnings and all the facts about the regime in Tehran funding and supporting terrorism, the Bush administration decided to invade Iraq - their first mistake. Going against the international community the bush administration decided to eliminate the threat in Iraq, ignoring the facts that the real threat is next door in Tehran. While enjoying the resources of a rich country, the regime in Tehran has illustrated out in polished detail how the undeclared war in Iraq should bring the US on their knees. Judging by the latest developments and the administration's green light to Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, the regime in Tehran seems to have done a good job.

The Islamic regime in Tehran seems to be perpetually a few moves ahead of the international community. International community was in total denial, believing that the regime could be persuaded to stop their nuclear activities by carrots and sticks unaware that the regime has both the carrot and the stick. Controlling the various terrorist organizations and Hamas,while providing the lucrative deals to the Russians and the Chinese, the regime possesses both the carrot and the stick.

Playing the Russians and the Chinese against the E.U. and U.S., the Islamic Republic has clearly demonstrated that some are incapable and some are unwilling to confront the regime. To make this even more obvious, the U.N. nuclear agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei has pushed the idea of a nuclear Islamic republic.

Not that the regime in Tehran needed the agreement of the nuclear agency to pursue its nuclear activities. The day before ElBaradei was due in Tehran, Ahmadinejad officially announced that the regime has completed the uranium enrichment cycle.

The DEBKAfile reported on April 14th, 2006, that the Islamic regime is constructing a secret, large-scale enrichment plant at Neyshabour. According to the exclusive report, there will be 155,000 centrifuges, enough to enrich uranium for 3-5 nuclear bombs a year, which will be ready to go in three years.

The IAEA reported in 2003 that Iran had hidden a uranium enrichment program for 18 years. The report above about the larger mirror sites which came out only days ago indicated the low level of intelligence the west possesses on the Islamic regime's activities.

Given the fact that the Israeli and U.S. interests are in clear and present danger, there is very little doubt that the Bush administration will resort to military air strikes and ground military activities are unlikely. Various reports indicate that the Bush administration is hoping that an uprising by the Iranian people will overthrow the regime while military air strikes are taking place. Given the fact that the Islamic regime has been steps ahead at all times, the regime is well aware of this move and will simply smother any uprising. While the leaders are in their secure hideouts, regime militias will be on highest alert to repress any mass movement by any means necessary.

Once the attacks are over, and the identified sites have served their purposes as bombing baits, the regime will gain the full support Russia and China and probably the United Nations while playing the victim card. Simultaneously, as "waiting Bush out" strategy, the real nuclear activities which are only partly known to us will continue underground, gearing up for the retaliation which will be billed as self-defense.

Yesterday, Ahmadinejad called Israel "a rotten, dried tree" that would be annihilated by "one storm", inferring to a nuclear Armageddon, while Ahmad Jannati, a senior cleric, said in a Friday prayer sermon that the United States was a "decaying power". "We are sure that U.S. will return to saner policies" said Manouchehr Mottaki recently referring to the "waiting Bush out" strategy.

All of the sudden Islamic Republic's statement makes much more sense.

Obviously, the second and probably the last mistake U.S. may make as a super power is to let the regime in Tehran remain in power at the end of the day.

Original Article


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